Data are far from complete but, in the first quarter, the visible decline in transport, industrial and commercial activity points to a massive drop in global oil demand of 2.5 mb/d compared with the first quarter of last year. ... IG Client Sentiment Index: Crude Oil (June 22, 2020) (Chart 1) Oil - … In August, OECD industry stocks fell by 22.1 mb (0.71 mb/d) m-o-m to 3 194 mb, and were 209.1 mb above their five-year average level. In October, Hurricane Delta shut in record volumes of United States offshore production, although initial reports suggest that damage to infrastructure is limited and output is expected to recover quickly. As well as the negative impact on demand of the coronavirus, the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting was seen by traders as a bearish signal. Furthermore, oil price changes often impact the rest of the economy. Long Run Forecast In the long run, which “ is a time frame in which the quantity of all factors of production can be varied ” (Parkin 2010, p.214), oil demand and supply … Stocks peaked at 3.204 billion in May 2020. North Sea Dated, remained below the futures front month reflecting a well-supplied prompt market. Release Date: 12/31/2020: Next Release Date: 1/29/2021 This is the largest oil production cut ever negotiated aimed at stabilizing oil prices. Our pessimistic low case assumes that countries already affected by the virus recover more slowly while the epidemic spreads further in Europe, Asia, and beyond. If these countries cannot supply oil because they are impeded from doing so, and demand remains constant, oil prices will go up. Under almost any scenario, the world is likely to require significant amounts of investment in new oil production for many years to come. In 1Q20, China’s demand falls by 1.8 mb/d y-o-y with global demand down 2.5 mb/d. Geopolitical events and severe weather that disrupt the supply of crude oil and petroleum products to market can affect crude oil and petroleum product prices. This includes an estimated annual decline of 4.2 mb/d in February, of which 3.6 mb/d was in China. The price of oil shown is adjusted for inflation using the headline CPI and is shown by default on a logarithmic scale. "A demand drop of 10% is the New Normal with oil," said John Driscoll, director of JTD Energy Services in Singapore and a former oil trader whose career spans nearly 40 years. ... At the end, what matters for crude oil is supply and demand. The group’s current 2.1 mb/d of production cuts are due to expire at the end of the month. As we move through the second half of the year, demand picks up, growing by 1.1 mb/d compared with the second half of 2019. In this case, global oil demand could grow by 480,000 barrels per day in 2020. OPEC estimated that total global oil demand will come in at 99.73 million b/d in 2020, with the second half of the year expected to see higher consumption than the first half. Coronavirus, Crude Oil, Forecast; Export . World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, October 2020. It takes longer to control the propagation of the virus, and the contraction in Chinese oil demand eases more slowly in March. The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for September, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed in this cycle in June 2018 at 2.804 billion barrels. MALAYSIA: Exports of Palm oil until November 2020 (1000 T) GRAPH: MALAYSIA Palm Oil Production & Exports; GRAPH: MALAYSIA Annual Palm Oil Yields; BUY THIS ISSUE. IEA (2020), Oil Market Report - March 2020, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2020. Oil prices rose on Tuesday, with Brent crude rising above $40 a barrel, as the IEA increased its oil demand forecast for 2020 and as record supply cuts supported. At this stage, high uncertainty over the course of the outbreak has led us to propose alternatives to our base case – a more pessimistic one in which global measures are less successful in containing the virus; and an optimistic case in which the virus is contained quickly. See also: List of countries by Oil Reserves There are 1.65 trillion barrels of proven oil reserves in the world as of 2016. It was impossible at that time to know how extensive the damage from the pandemic would be and for how long life support would be needed. In 2021, runs will rebound only partially, to levels last seen in 2015. ICE Brent fell below $46/bbl during 6 March, the lowest level since June 2017. Containment measures imposed in North America, Europe and elsewhere are expected to have a smaller impact on oil demand than those in China. Strong gains in global refinery throughput in July and relatively stable runs in August and September came at the cost of steep falls in margins, which in 3Q20 saw one of their worst quarters. World Oil Supply And Price Outlook - September 2020. Oil prices fell more than 2% on Wednesday as a market surplus forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and demand worries outweighed concern over disruptions to Libya's crude output. Interactive charts of West Texas Intermediate (WTI or NYMEX) crude oil prices per barrel back to 1946. Skip navigation. The implication, therefore, is that the OPEC+ countries will be free to exercise their commercial judgement when assessing future levels of production. Exxon has a announced some pretty game changing predictions for oil supply and demand, and if the company is correct, peak oil is not likely to happen in our lifetimes The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for September, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed in this cycle in June 2018 at 2.804 billion barrels. In February and into March, Chinese run cuts pressured the price of crude from the Middle East and West Africa in particular. The publication is a means to highlight and further the understanding of the many possible future challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for the oil industry. World Oil Reserves. Our 2021 forecast is also largely unchanged at 97.2 mb/d, showing a gain of 5.5 mb/d from 2020. In our base case, the outbreak is brought under control in China by the end of the first quarter but spreads across many other countries beyond Iran, Korea, Japan, Singapore, the United States and Europe. Global oil demand is expected to fall by a record 9.3 million barrels a day this year as government-implemented lockdowns keep the economy at a near standstill, the International Energy Agency said. Global supply fell 0.6 mb/d to 91.1 mb/d in September, down 8.7 mb/d on 2019, as the UAE slashed output and maintenance cut flows in the North Sea and Brazil, more than offsetting a US rebound from August’s hurricane shut-ins. Unlike some of her European peers, Hollub sees strong long-term demand for oil. Global oil supply fell by 580 kb/d in February as production from Libya slowed to a trickle. Around the world the supply of oil far exceeds demand for it, as governments try to limit the spread of covid-19. Preliminary data for September show that crude stocks in the US and Japan fell by 6.5 mb and 1.8 mb, respectively, while those in Europe rose by 3.3 mb. 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